A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
